Monday, 24 August 2015

Bear Dances Amid East and West Orchestra - Where is the market heading?

Bear Dances Amid East and West Orchestra


1.(24 August 2015) today major Asian indices closed red. (yea i know whole world closed red but let's just focus on the Asian indices now)See below:


2. Again, Shanghai index was the biggest loser, plummeted a huge 8.34% at closing. the rest of the markets are not doing any better, with averagely 3 to 5% down.

3. This evening, another breaking news shocked the market. US Dow Jones index gap down by 1000 points when the market opened. although the index climbed back subsequently, it showed us that the market is now very sensitive and emotional.


4. Likelihood that the initial sell down was due to the fear that the Asian market slowdown may directly hit the US market. After observing such a major cutback in Asian indices, I believe many investors from the state must have been freaked out.

5. The fear of another global financial crisis has brought the DJI to a historical drop since 2007.

6. As for Asian market, main markets opened lower to the previous closing price.

7. It was reported that US market indices closed lower on last Friday, DJI was 531 points lower at the closing session, which is considered a significant figure as it has been a long time since DJI droped more than 500 points in a single day trade.

8. Technically, it is seen that the eastern and the western market is playing a fear-induced orchestra, a positive feedback was observed in the market trend of both side of the world. The fear of one market's weakness send the other market weaker.

9. Fundamentally, the Asian market is worrying about the Federal rate adjustment in September, and the dampening Eurozone economy and unsolved Greece issues. On the west side, the States are worrying that slowing China statistics and continuous dropping commodity prices may hurt the economy of the emerging markets and Asian countries are expected to be impacted.

10. Meanwhile, since China dropped their currency weeks ago, people has grown wary with the PBOC's next move. It's believed that the China central back will continue to de-valuate their currency if the export figure hasn't been improved.

11. It's said that China has overbuilt their production capacities over the year, even with such a huge population, the slowing economic growth over the years may indicate that the people's ability to consumes could be getting saturated.

12. After all, China GDP per capita is just 7.5k, still lower than Malaysia's 10k. This is due to a huge gap in dispersion of wealth in the country.

13: Inference: The market is fear driven now. The bear started to dance as the east and west market are starting to orchestrating with one another, technically and fundamentally; due to many unsolved issues in the economy of both worlds and uncertainties in the monetary policy of the 2 world largest economy. Buy your pop corn and enjoy the show!

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